In Riyadh, an expert at Moody’s Analytics predicts Saudi Arabia’s ongoing economic diversification will lead to steady growth in the non-oil sector, expected to range between 3% and 4% annually until 2030. Catarina Noro, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, emphasized the significant shift in the Saudi economy over the past decade, with the non-oil sector increasingly contributing to GDP growth. Noro highlighted that by 2030, the non-oil economy is projected to comprise approximately 56% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP.
Moody’s anticipates that growth in Saudi Arabia’s oil sector will remain modest, between 0.5% and 1.5%, from 2025 to 2030. The country’s emphasis on strengthening the non-oil private sector aligns with its Vision 2030 objectives, aiming to reduce dependence on oil revenue. Noro stressed the importance of facilitating credit access for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to drive growth in key sectors such as tourism and construction.
Noro emphasized the need for Saudi Arabia to focus on expanding its labor force, particularly by increasing female participation rates and accommodating growth in the expatriate population. A larger labor force is seen as crucial for sustaining momentum in the non-oil private sector.
Recent reports from Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics and the Small and Medium Enterprises General Authority affirm the upward trajectory of the non-oil private sector. Non-oil activities expanded by 3.5% in the third quarter of the year, with the number of SMEs reaching 1.27 million by the end of the same period, indicating a 3.5% increase compared to the previous quarter. Notably, over 40,000 new businesses were established during the third quarter, with Riyadh hosting 43.3% of all SMEs in the Kingdom.
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